I spent several hours this week trying, unsuccessfully, to untangle three sets of those Christmas tree lights that are one big loop. Trying to decide between horses that ticked the same boxes gave me a similar headache. It started off well with Smarty Wild recovering from a jumping mistake to take the first televised race from Kempton. This was the first of my decisions today. I've looked at my winners and places since I started this and date of last run, distance of last run and finishing position appear to be the most important ingredients with Trainer and Jockey data providing the least results. Both Smarty Wild and Erick Le Rouge ticked 4 boxes but Jane Williams winning this previously was one of the latters so I went with the horse with the data that mattered more and he won. Adagio made it two from two in the Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow. He had identical numbers to Elham Valley but I went with the shorter priced horse. Coo Star Sivola was chosen over Double Shuffle because he had age over course and that proved to be the wrong decision. Tom George's horse winning for the first time in 4 years but has always been a good each way shot during that time. Call Me Lord impressed me at Cheltenham last time out and was chosen over Summerville Boy on age while third placed Thomas Darby and the excellent winner Mcfabulous both had course but hadn't run in December (winner ran 27th November). Mcfabulous was a short odds favourite though Protektorat and Imperial Aura were also odds on today but lost. Harry Cobden resembled a rodeo rider as he and eventual winner Master Tommytucker almost made as much of a mess of the last as Imperial Aura made of the second. Horses are animals, Jockeys make mistakes, anything can happen, perfectly illustrated by what happened with my final selection of the day, more on that later. Call Me Lord was disappointing and always looked to be near flat out just to stay in contention. Tidal Flow was going to be my selection in the 2.35 at Wincanton but this was his second preference and he went to Chepstow instead though only finished 5th of 6. Slate House and Glen Forsa were the choices. I went with Slate House who finished 3rd but outside places with only six runners. The big race of the day, The Welsh Grand National, was won by Secret Reprieve who was one of 4 horses that met 5 criteria. Vieux Lion Rouge had age and weight, Evan Williams horse had finished 1st or 2nd at Chepstow last time out, as had The Two Amigos and Springfield Fox. I was rewarded by going for the favourite who was brilliant and like Potters Corner last year, looked the winner from a long way out as long as he didn't make a mistake. The Two Amigos finished second. I was looking good for a fourth winner of the day with Glynn in the big field Lanzarote. Nicky Hendersons 7 year old tracked the leaders and was about to jump into contention at the third last but suddenly started going backwards just after he landed and was pulled up. Not sure what happened, hopefully he's ok. The race was won by 66/1 Boreham Bill. Three winners on the day and Glynn, who ticked all boxes, was unlucky. Double Shuffle was the one that got away especially because he's also on my Sporting Life tracker.
1.10 Kempton - Selection - Smarty Wild - age, distance, course, month
1.10 Kempton - Winner - Smarty Wild - as above
1.25 Chepstow - Selection - Adagio - age, weight, position, distance, month
1.25 Chepstow - Winner - Adagio - as above
1.45 Kempton - Selection - Coo Star Sivola - age, weight, position, distance, month
1.45 Kempton - Winner - Double Shuffle - weight, position, distance, course, month
2.20 Kempton - Selection - Call Me Lord - age, weight, position, distance, month
2.20 Kempton - Winner - Mcfabulous - age, weight, position, distance, course
2.35 Wincanton - Selection - Slate House - age, position, distance, month
2.35 Wincanton - Winner - Capeland - age, position, month
3.10 Chepstow - Selection - Secret Reprieve - age, position, distance, course, month
3.10 Chepstow - Winner - Secret Reprieve - as above
3.30 Kempton - Selection - Glynn - age, weight, jockey, trainer, position, distance, course, month
3.30 Kempton - Winner - Boreham Bill - position, month
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