As we're in Strictly season it seems the perfect time to quote pantomime baddie judge Craig Revel Horwood and say "That was a disaster, darling". The Caspian Caviar Cup was won by Irish raider Chatham Street Lad and was tipped by Chris Cook and Greg Wood from The Guardian and Samantha Martin from Rein It In Racing who reasoned the race had been targeted and they would not have made the long trip over unless they meant business. I have to admit I'd never heard of the horse or the Trainer and it's shouts like this from people with encyclopaedic knowledge of racing, that rightly get the accolades. My process uses data from the last 3 winners and while the winner ticked a couple of boxes, weight and ran in November, Southfield Stone had much more in common with the last 3 winners. In the end, he finished 10th having been prominent early which 9 times out of 10 is a bad sign as the leaders rarely make all. Coole Cody who was also in this race was one who did a few weeks back and the signs were he could do it again but he ran out of steam. The winner came through like a train to win by 15 lengths. Southfield Stone was last of those who finished, a long way back and Al Dancer was just ahead of him.
Would the day work out any better for me at Doncaster? No. The horse that won was the only one of the 4 in it I didn't mention. In fairness they all ticked 4 or 5 boxes, age, weight, first or second last time out in November but my decision to go with a jockey who'd won this before backfired spectacularly. Milanford, who was also in the reckoning finished second at 10/1. Something else to note is how few of the favourites have won.
Danny Kirwan was selected in the next at Cheltenham and again he was prominent at the start which didn't bode well. Harry Cobden riding him was the deciding factor over the winner Make Good while outsider Promising Milan and Took The Lot were also discussed. So this was the age old problem that I can narrow the field but I still have to choose between a few horses but often it's the wrong one. The winner was the only one who had age, weight and won a 2m in November but this was a 3m hurdle.
I did have one winner, the odds on Monmiral had one more criteria than the rest of the field, he's trained by Paul Nicholls who'd won this before. Gordon Elliott sent Glorious Zoff over from Ireland but there wasn't the same clamour for him as there was for Chatham Street Lad.
The Unibet Hurdle was dominated by the return of Goshen who famously unseated his rider with the Triumph Hurdle at his mercy in March. He only ticked one box for me so was never in my thinking. Again, he was another very short favourite who failed to fire. I went for Call Me Lord who filled 7 of the previous years criteria and I wasn't too disappointed with this one. There were about 10 in with a shout as they went round the last with the winter evening sun making it too dangerous for them to go over it. Who knows what would have happened had they been able to jump the final hurdle, would Call Me Lord have propelled himself into the places with one last good leap? We'll never know. The winner Song For Someone had won a 2m3f at Ascot in November but wasn't in the weight or age range. He beat Silver Streak by a nose and he had similar credentials but was carried out in a 2m in November, the Fighting Fifth if I remember right, a race I thought he could take a place in behind the peerless Epatante.
The penultimate televised race was a 3m chase from Doncaster won by Rockys Treasure who was the right age, weight and ran in a 2m6f in November. The two I couldn't decide between were Singlefarmpayment who hasn't won for 4 years and the favourite Boldmere who was another ridden handy but fell away badly. I've just checked the going and I'm surprised it was good to soft and not heavy as hell. They both finished 4th in their last run which fit the pattern. I think I'll use the position finished in last race as a range now too. It would have got Rockys Treasure into my final decision but 3rd placed Jersey Bean still would have missed out as he won his last race and I was looking for 3rd, 4th or U.
The last instalment of a pitiful day was the mares handicap hurdle from Cheltenham. Aggy With It is trained and ridden by the Skeltons so had the most of what I was looking for but I also had a nagging feeling about The White Mouse who won but had one less indicator than my selection. Maybe this is the hunch they talk about in one of the betting adverts. Interestingly, the runner up was the only one who fit the weight range so if I'd still been doing this the old way I'd have got her. Gutsy performance from The White Mouse and Bryony as they looked beaten from a long way out but dug in to come through and win.
So what did I learn this week? There is no exact formula to picking horses. This way could be part of a process of picking horses but there are other ways including watching all the racing and knowing what each horse is capable of which is something I don't have time for. I'll keep going with this for the rest of the national hunt season and see how it all ends up. I'll have a lot of info for Cheltenham if nothing else.
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Racing today is from Cheltenham and Doncaster starting with the 1.50 Caspian Caviar Cup Chase over 2m4f at the the home of National Hunt. The last 3 runners were aged 6 or 7 and carried between 11/12 and 10/3 so that covers the whole field this year. Other criteria includes jockeys Ryan Day, David Noonan and Bryony Frost while the last 3 winners have been trained by David Pipe, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Richards. Last run for all was a 2m4f at Cheltenham in November that none of them won. They all finished second, third or lower. With all this in mind Southfield Stone ticks the most boxes including age, weight, jockey, trainer and was second in a 2m4f here in November. Al Dancer is next with 6 and there's a few on 4 like Good Boy Bobby, Annie Mc, Champagne Mystery, Windsor Avenue, Saint Sonnet and Coole Cody who won over C & D last time.
Next we move to Doncaster for the 2.05 Bet365 December Novices Steeple Chase. Previous winners are Sam Spinner, Rockys Treasure and Keeper Hill. There are only 5 runners in this with three of them filling 5 boxes - House Island, Milanford and Ofalltheginjoints. They've all finished first or second in November in races between 2m3f and 3m but I've gone with House Island because he's ridden by Gavin Sheehan who has won this before and Ofalltheginjoints is very short in the betting while Milanford is the longest. Tough one to call.
Back at Cheltenham it's Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at 2.25. Make Good, Promising Milan and Took The Lot fit the pattern with 5 each so does Danny Kirwan and he has Harry Cobden onboard and they won together last time out at Ascot in November. I've definitely used jockey and trainer as deciding factor this week.
The 2.40 at Doncaster is the 2m Juvenile Hurdle and the odds on favourite Monmiral goes for Paul Nicholls who won this with Quel Destin in 2018. He has a slight lead over Glorious Zoff, Cloud Thunder and Gold Desert who all apart from Cloud Thunder finished first or second over the distance in November.
The Unibet International Hurdle over 2m is the 3.00 from Cheltenham. Nicky Henderson has dominated this race for the last 3 years. Call Me Lord and Verdana Blue go for the Seven Barrows trainer today. James Bowen rides Call Me Lord and the pair finished second last time out at Ascot to fill 7 boxes, two more than Verdana Blue who is on 5 along with Ballyandy.
The final race from Doncaster is the 3m Bet365 Handicap Chase. Seven to nine year olds have won recently but winners carried weight right across the field. Jersey Bean, Rockys Treasure and Looking Well have finished in the top 4 or run over the distance range last month but it came down to choosing between Boldmere and Singlefarmpayment who both finished 4th in a 3m in November but Henry Olivers horse had his run at Sandown which is consistent with 2 of the last 3 winners. However, I've gone for the favourite Boldmere as my super heinz was already returning a huge amount of winnings which is normally a sign that some of my selections are too big in price.
Last race of Saturday racing is the 3.35 from Cheltenham, the Close Brothers Mares Handicap Hurdle, again over 2 mile. Aggy With It gets the nod here for Harry and Dan Skelton who won this with Momella three years ago. The White Mouse and Molly Ollys Wishes were in the reckoning though the latter is now a non runner.
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