Second week recording my process for picking horses and more lessons learnt. Last week, I realised I wasn't using enough of the data from the three previous winners so this week I used it all, you can see the workings out below. Whereas before I was only really using age, weight range and previous run this week I've broken down into age, weight, trainer, jockey, finishing position, distance, date and course. Next, I look at all the horses in each of the televised races and put their name against any of the categories from the previous winners. Whoever had the most in common, was my pick.
The main problem with this was it took absolutely ages to do. I love relaxing on a Friday night after working all week, trying to find winners or each way shots for the following days televised racing. I'm happy to spend 2-3 hours doing it and getting the bets on before I go to bed then that's it done. Record the racing, do family stuff all day then see how I got on later that night. This week, it was 2-3 hours to do 4 races then another 1-2 hours to do another two. Of the eight races, I'd only looked at 6 and just got my Lucky 63 on at twenty five past one, 5 minutes before the first race. If I want to continue with this I'll have to start compiling previous winners data during the week.
I went through the races in course order, starting with Sandown. The first race there was the 1.50 and this was the breakdown of the previous winners.
5 Year Old | 11/2 | Adam Wedge | Harry Cobden | Darryl Jacob | Evan Williams | Paul Nicholls | Alan King | 1st | 2nd | 2m | 2m3f | November | Cheltenham | Exeter | Warwick |
Tamaroc Du Mathan ticked 6 of these boxes but was a non runner when I was putting my money on. Next was Hitman with 5 and I went with him. I'm a fan of Allmankind but I'm trying to stick with the process. Hitman ran very well to finish second to Allmankind, keeping the winner honest to the line.
Next up was the Tingle Creek and all the talk was about Altior's withdrawal. I'm sure Politologue was delighted to hear his main rival was out.
6-8 year old | 8 year old | 11/7 | Nico De Boinville | Harry Cobden | Philip Hobbs | Nicky Henderson | Paul Nicholls | 1st | 2m | 2m1f | November | April | Cheltenham | Sandown | Exeter |
Greaneteen (7) |
| Greaneteen |
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| Greaneteen | Greaneteen |
| Greaneteen | Greaneteen |
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| Greaneteen |
Rouge Vif (5) |
| Rouge Vif |
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| Rouge Vif | Rouge Vif |
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| Rouge Vif |
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| Altior | Altior |
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| Altior |
| Altior | Altior |
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Brewin’upastorm (3) |
| Brewin’upastorm |
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| Brewin’upastorm |
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| Castlegrace Paddy (4) |
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| Castlegrace Paddy | Castlegrace Paddy |
| Castlegrace Paddy |
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| Politologue (5) |
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| Politologue | Politologue | Politologue |
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| Politologue |
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Greaneteen ticked 7 boxes here and like Hitman ran a great race to finish in second. Again, I like Politologue. For a long time he looked like he might be a nearly horse but he's proven he's a top class 2 miler and the Champion Chase victory in March wasn't a fluke. If you asked me on Friday who would win, I'd have said Altior. On Saturday morning, I'd have said Politologue but based on the above there was a strong case for Greaneteen and he did well.
At 3pm, it was the three mile, four and a half furlong London National. I had to check to see if this was the first running of this race as there was no previous winner on this years race card but after a bit of digging I discovered it had been declared void and the memory of the race came back to me. Poor Houblon Des Obeaux lay stricken and the marshals attempts at stopping the race with flags were ignored or not noticed. Doing Fine crossed the line first but the victory was taken from him. This year all boxes pointed to him doing it for real and so it proved. He was always prominent and took the lead from 4 out but looked like he may have lost it 2 from home before retaking the lead and staying on gamely to win.
Morney Wing | 9 | 10/0 | Rex Dingle | C Mann | 2nd 3m3f Fon Nov |
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Benbens | 12 | 10/13 | Z Baker | Nigel Twiston-Davies | 4th 3m3f Che Nov |
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Doing Fine | 11 | 9/7 | P Donovan | Neil Mulholland | 4th 3m1f Che Oct |
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9-12 year old | 10/13 - 9/7 | Rex Dingle | Z Baker | P Donovan | C Mann | Nigel Twiston-Davies | Neil Mulholland | 2nd | 4th | 3m1f | 3m3f | October | November | Fontwell | Cheltenham |
Crosspark (3) |
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| Crosspark |
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| Crosspark |
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Pobbles Bay (3) | Pobbles Bay |
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| Pobbles Bay |
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Doing Fine (6) | Doing Fine |
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| Doing Fine | Doing Fine (3rd) |
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| Doing Fine |
| Doing Fine | Doing Fine |
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Shanroe Santos (3) | Shanroe Santos |
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| Shanroe Santos |
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| Classic Ben (3) |
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| Classic Ben |
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| Classic Ben |
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| Regal Flow (2) |
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| Regal Flow |
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| Cloudy Glen (3) |
| Cloudy Glen | Cloudy Glen |
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The final race from Sandown was a 2 mile listed hurdle. The choice came down to the short odds favourite Mister Coffey and the 6/1 second favourite Benson. I went with the value second favourite although in the 2 mile at Aintree I went for the short odds favourite over the value bet. On both occasions the value bet won but I only made the right decision on Benson. It was similar to the previous race with the winner being decided by the horse who kept on over the last.
3.35 2m Hurdle |
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2019 | Mack The Man | 5 | 10/1 | Adam Wedge | Evan Williams | 1st 2m War Nov |
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2018 | Man Of Plenty | 9 | 10/7 | Sean Houlihan | S Leech | 4th 2m4f New Dec |
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2017 | A Hare Breath | 9 | 11/11 | Darryl Jacob | Ben Pauling | 21st 2m4f Ain Apr |
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| 5-9 year old | 11/11-10/1 | Adam Wedge | Sean Houlihan | Darryl Jacob | Evan Williams | S Leech | Ben Pauling | 1st | 4th | 2m | 2m4f | November | December | April | Warwick | Newbury | Aintree |
| Eglantine Du Seuil (3) | Eglantine Du Seuil |
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| Eglantine Du Seuil |
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| Totterdown (4) | Totterdown |
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| Totterdown |
| Totterdown |
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| MIster Coffey (5) | Mister Coffey |
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| MIster Coffey |
| Mister Coffey |
| Mister Coffey |
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| Nickolson (2) | Nickolson |
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| Rosie And Millie (4) | Rosie And Millie |
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| Rose And Millie |
| Rose And Millie |
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| Benson (5) | Benson |
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| Benson |
| Benson |
| Benson |
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| Let The Heirs Walk (2) | Let The Heirs Walk |
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| Jollys Cracked It (1) |
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| Galice Macalo (3) |
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| Galice Macalo |
| Galice Macalo |
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| Solo (3) | Solo |
| Solo |
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So two winners and 2 placed at Sandown but things didn't go as well at Aintree. The Becher Chase was the first race of the day and I couldn't look beyond Walk In The Mill who was going for a hat trick in the race. My recording missed the start of it and he was already out of the race when I pressed play as they were approached 4 out. I learned afterwards that he'd fallen early, perhaps distracted by the low sun, he jumped and landed awkwardly. Vieux Lion Rouge won but only matched 2 of the criteria. Kimberlite Candy was one of my picks for the National and he proved again he could find his way around the fences in this rehearsal ahead of April. Both winner and runner up ticked twice.
Aintree 1.30 3m |
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2019 | Walk In The Mill | 9 | 10/8 | James Best | R Walford | P 3m1f Win Nov |
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2018 | Walk In The Mill | 8 | 10/3 | James Best | R Walford | 3rd 3m1f Che Nov |
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2017 | Blaklion | 8 | 11/6 | G Sheehan | Nigel Twiston-Davies | 2nd 3m Wet Nov |
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| 8-9 Year Old | 11/6 - 10/3 | James Best | Gavin Sheehan | R Walford | Nigel Twiston-Davies | Pulled UP | 2nd | 3rd | 3m | 3m1f | November | Wincanton | Cheltenham | Wetherby |
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| Jett (2) |
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| Jett |
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| Ramses De Teillee (4) | Ramses De Teillee |
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| Ramses De Teillee |
| Ramses De Teillee |
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| Kimberlite Candy (2) | Kimberlite Candy |
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| Calett Mad (4) | Calett Mad |
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| Calett Mad |
| Calett Mad |
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| Le Breuil (2) | Le Breuil |
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| Coo Star Sivola (3) | Coo Star Sivola |
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| Coo Star Sivola |
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| Calipso Collonges (3) |
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| Calipso Collonges |
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| Calipso Collonges |
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| Minellacelebration (2) |
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| Minellacelebration |
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| Walk In The Mill (4) | Walk In The Mill |
| Walk In The Mill |
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| Walk In The Mill |
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| Smooth Stepper (3) |
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| Smooth Stepper |
| Smooth Stepper |
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| Vieux Lion Rouge (2) |
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| Vieux Lion Rouge |
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| Joe Farrell (3) |
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| Joe Farrell |
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| Joe Farrell |
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| Yala Enki (3) |
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| Yala Enki |
| Yala Enki |
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| Aso (2) |
| Aso |
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The last race I got looking at was the fillies 2 mile hurdle listed race, this featured Smiling Eliza in 2018. I had multiple horses that had 5 fields from the previous run data so it came down to making a decision and under pressure I went for the short odds favourite Megan who finished third. The winner Talking About You would have been better value even if Megan had won and she'd only placed so I need to consider these things when making a decision. A 14/1 winner here on top of the 2 other winners would have made it a very good day. I take consolation from the fact the process threw up the winner amongst some others, I just made a poor decision.
2.05 2m Hurdle |
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2019 | Midnights Gift | 3 | 10/12 | Tom Cannon | Alan King | 1st 2m Fak Oct |
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2018 | Chica Buena | 3 | 10/12 | Brian Hughes | Keith Dalgleish | 1st 2m Mus Nov |
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2017 | Famous Milly | 3 | 10/12 | R Dunne | Gavin Cromwell | 2nd 2m Pun Nov |
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| 3 year old | 10/12 | Tom Cannon | Brian Hughes | R Dunne | Alan King | Keith Dalgleish | Gavin Cromwell | 1st | 2nd | 2m | November | October | Fakenham | Punchestown | Musselburgh |
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| Army Of One (3) | Army Of One |
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| Army Of One |
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| Bellatrixsa (3) | Bellatrixsa |
| Bellatrixsa |
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| Her Indoors (3) | Her Indoors |
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| Her Indoors |
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| Hiconic (5) | Hiconic |
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| Hiconic | Hiconic |
| Hiconic |
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| High Moor Flyer (5) | High Moor Flyer |
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| High Moor Flyer | High Moor Flyer | High Moor Flyer |
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| Lightning Blue (4) | Lightning Blue |
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| Lightning Blue |
| Lightning Blue |
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| Megan (5) | Megan |
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| Megan |
| Megan | Megan |
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| Scholastic (3) | Scholastic |
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| Scholastic |
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| See The Eagle Fly (4) | See The Eagle Fly |
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| See The Eagle Fly | See The Eagle Fly |
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| Talking About You (5) | Talking About You |
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| Talking About You |
| Talking About You | Talking About You |
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| Ten Thousand Stars (3) | Ten Thousand Stars |
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| Ten Thousand Stars |
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All in all it was another interesting days betting with a couple of thrilling winners and 2 decent seconds. Looking forward to this weekend and seeing if it can continue to improve.
Didn't get all looked at today.
1.30 Walk In The Mill (Fell)
1.50 Hitman (2nd)
2.05 Megan (3rd)
2.25 Greaneteen (2nd)
3pm Doing Fine (1st)
3.35 Benson (1st)
Lucky 63 E/W more details of selections in review. This took ages.
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