Cheltenham 2021 - Tuesday 16th March

Since the National Hunt season began properly in November, I've been trying a formula based on the last 3 winners of any live ITV Saturday race and their previous run. In 60 races, I'd 13 winners and 17 placed. There was some success but it's far from full proof and some selections are wild. Further analysis on the winners of the races this season suggested that 80% had their previous run in the same month as the one or more of the previous 3 winners, 75% of winners had raced over the distance they'd run over the time before they won the race, 71% completed in a position the 3 previous winners finished in their prep run, 67% fit the weight range of previous winners and 65% were in the age range. Course they ran at (35%), Trainer who won the race before (17%) and Jockey (2%) were far less significant.

So with all this in mind, I've two bets on today. The first one sticks to the Age, Weight, Jockey, Trainer, Position, Distance, Course and Month formula and the selections for this are:

1.20 Appreciate It

1.55 Franco De Port

2.30 Aye Right

3.05 Epatante

3.40 Minella Melody

4.15 Riviere D'Etel

4.50 Ofalltheginjoints

The second bet uses only the highest percentage categories Month, Distance, Position, Weight and Age:

1.20 Metier

1.55 Shishkin

2.30 Aye Right

3.05 Honeysuckle

3.40 Floressa

4.15 Druids Altar

4.50 Escaria Ten

If you take the Champion Hurdle as an example of how the selections are made, the 3 previous winners are:

3.05	Winner	Age	Weight	Jockey	Trainer	Previous run 1
2020	Epatante	6	11/3	Barry Geraghty	Nicky Henderson	1st 2m Kem Dec
2019	Espoir D’Allen	5	11/10	Mark Walsh	Gavin Cromwell	27/1/19 Naa 2m 1/5 Y 11/8
2018	Buveur D’air	7	11/10	Barry Geraghty	Nicky Henderson	3/2/18 San 1m7f Sft  11/6 1/3

then I split out all this data and apply it to this years race. Weight is more of a factor in the handicaps.

5-7 Y O	11/10 - 11/3	Barry Geraghty	Mark Walsh	Nicky Henderson	Gavin Cromwell	1st	1m7f - 2m	Kempton	Naas	Sandown	Dec-Feb
Abacadabras (4)	Abacadabras						Abacadabras				Abacadabras
Aspire Tower (4)	Aspire Tower						Aspire Tower				Aspire Tower
Goshen (5)	Goshen					Goshen	Goshen				Goshen
James Du Berlais (3)	James Du Berlais						James Du Berlais
	Not So Sleepy (4)					Not So Sleepy	Not So Sleepy				Not So Sleepy
Saldier (4)	Saldier						Saldier				Saldier
	Sharjah (3)						Sharjah				Sharjah
	Silver Streak (5)					Silver Streak	Silver Streak	Silver Streak			Silver Streak
Epatante (6)	Epatante			Epatante			Epatante	Epatante			Epatante
Honeysuckle (5)	Honeysuckle					Honeysuckle	Honeysuckle				Honeysuckle

Epatante ticks the most boxes because Nicky Henderson has won it (twice) in the last 3 years. The second formula ignores Course, Trainer and Jockey.

Month	Distance	Position	Weight	Age
Abacadabras	Abacadabras		Abacadabras	Abacadabras (4)
Aspire Tower	Aspire Tower		Aspire Tower	Aspire Tower (4)
Goshen	Goshen	Goshen	Goshen	Goshen (5)
	James Du Berlais		James Du Berlais	James Du Berlais (3)
Not So Sleepy	Not So Sleepy	Not So Sleepy	Not So Sleepy (4)
Saldier	Saldier		Saldier	Saldier (4)
Sharjah	Sharjah		Sharjah (3)
Silver Streak	Silver Streak	Silver Streak	Silver Streak (5)
Epatante	Epatante		Epatante	Epatante (6)
Honeysuckle	Honeysuckle	Honeysuckle	Honeysuckle	Honeysuckle (5)

Goshen and Honeysuckle both tick all these boxes so I'd a decision to make and I went with Honeysuckle, Epatante lost last time out so only has 4 out of 5 here.

Let's see how we get on.