Racing Review:
A wise man once said: "Let's have a look at what you could've won". The first race of the day was at Fairyhouse where I was tipped Snugsborough Hall. I applied the formula (workings out shown on screen prints below) and for this one it was, last 3 winners 9YO,5YO,9YO, carrying between 11/5 and 10/8 and had a run over 2m/2m1f in last 2 months and Snugsborough Hall fit the bill as did the winner Impact Factor who was in weight range and age range but hadn't run for 18 months. My pick ran quite well into 5th and will hopefully win one soon.
12.30 Fairyhouse 2m Chase
1st Impact Factor 8 11-3 11/1, Jessica Harrington, Sean O'Keefe, previous run 2nd Pun, 2m, May 19
2nd Bel Ami Sivola 9 10-4 33/1
3rd Kildorrey 7 10-6 5/1
The first of the live ITV races (which I only got watching at 10pm having avoided the results all day) was the 1.50 at Newbury. The formula was: Last 3 winners aged 7YO,6YO,7YO, carried between 11/6 and 10/6, trained by Nicky Henderson and two of last three winners had won previous run over 2m6f in Nov. The other had come 4th in a 2m4f flat race at Goodwood in July. The winner here had previously run in November only. If I'd chosen Jacamar instead of On The Wild Side, I'd have had 4th place money. He was the wrong age but came 4th in a 2m4f in Nov.
1.50 Newbury 2m4f Hurdle
1st Flash The Steel 8 11-11 12/1, Dan Skelton, Harry Skelton, previous run F, Hay, 2m2f, Nov
2nd Amour de Nuit 8 11-10 16/1
3rd Champagne Platinum 6 11-7 8/1 Nicky Henderson
4th Jacamar 5 10-11 20/1
Saturdays first switch from Newbury to Newcastle was for the Fighting Fifth which has long been a race won by Nicky Henderson's best 2m hurdler and so it proved with Epatante continuing to impress with a sensational turn of foot after the last to leave Sceau Royal in her wake. It was really about who would pick up the place money in this. The formula was 5YO,6YO or 7YO, carrying 11/7, won a 2m last time out and trained by Nicky Henderson. Interestingly I ignored the weight on this one but discounted Sceau Royal because of age.
2.05 Newcastle 2m Hurdle
1st Epatante 6 11-0 8/11F, Aidan Coleman, Nicky Henderson, previous run 1st, 2m, Chl, Mar
2nd Sceau Royal 8 11-7 3/1
Back to Newbury for another 2m hurdle. The formula here was 5 or 6YO, carrying 11/10 - 11/6, trained by Ben Pauling (2/3 wins) and previous run was a 2m in Nov. Last years winner was Epatante, trained by Nicky Henderson and finished 9th in previous run, a 2m at Cheltenham in March. Same as the winner here 5 year old, Floressa. I ignored the age selection and went for 4YO Botox Has who finished 4th.
2.25 Newbury 2m Hurdle
1st Floressa 5 11-5 10/1, Jeremiah McGrath, Nicky Henderson, previous run 9th, 2m, Chl, Mar
2nd The Pink'n 4 11-2 25/1
3rd Milkwood 6 11-5 5/1
So to the big one of the day, the formula was 7-10YO, carrying between 11/3 and 10/8, had a previous run in October over 2m5f - 3m and two of last three winners won their previous race. I narrowed it down to Mister Malarkey who I went with but fell and Aye Right who finished second. There was definitely outside influence on this one as I have Mister Malarkey in my sporting life stable and get an email when he runs. I think when push came to shove yesterday, I went with the horse I knew and reasoned that Colin Tizzard had won this before. This is a good example of me picking the loser in a two horse race. In fact, 3 of the 5 paid places were on my selection but weren't chosen. Aye Right and The Conditional were right age and had previous run. The Hollow Ginge wasn't selected because previous run was 3m2f and I probably didn't like the look of the U in that also. The winner Cloth Cap was excellent. The right age but carrying bottom weight, though Tom Scudamore had won this before with Colin Tizzard. He'd also had a run in October finishing 3rd in a 3m1f at Cheltenham
3.00 Newbury 3m1f Chase
1st Cloth Cap 8 10-0 9/1, Tom Scudamore, Jonjo O'Neill, previous run 3rd, 3m1f, Chl, Oct
2nd Aye Right 7 11-0 12/1
3rd The Conditional 8 10-11 14/1
4th The Hollow Ginge 7 10-8 50/1
5th Beware The Bear 10 11-8 33/1
The final televised race at Newcastle saw Yorkhill, under a new Trainer since being sold by the Wylies, win at a massive 66/1. I can say I noticed he was in the race but I didn't take any notice. Another once big name horse, leaving a big yard to see if a new team could get anything else out of him, a bit like Don Poli. He didn't fit the formula anyway - aged 7-10YO, hold on a minute, carrying between 11/7 and 10/13, he's not in there, previous run over 3m-3m2f in Apr or Nov. Didn't have that either. There's a reason he was 66/1, everyone thought he was done but what a performance, showed all of that previous class we haven't seen for a long time. Great day for all concerned. I narrowed it down to two, Nicky Henderson's Brave Eagle got the nod over Takingrisks because he was the right age and the trainer. Takingrisks had won this last year and ended up 4th running on a bit at the end. Brave Eagle fell at the 11th.
3.15 Newcastle 2m7f Chase
1st Yorkhill 10 10-10 66/1, Sandy Thomson, Ryan Mania, Previous run, P, 2m3f, Ain, Oct
2nd Whatmore 8 10-10 9/4F
3rd Cool Mix 8 10-0 7/1
The final race of ITV Racing was a 2m chase at Newbury. The formula was 5YO, 8YO, 9YO carrying between 11/9 and 11/3, previous run over 2m-2m4f in November. Zanza was selected here on weight and he'd finished 2nd in a 2m at Warwick in November. Also Richard Johnson was a factor I think. It was another dramatic race with 3 fallers who all seemed to slide on landing before toppling over. Good to finish with a win on an otherwise very disappointing day.
3.35 Newbury 2m Chase
1st Zanza 6 11-3 5/2
2nd The King Of May 6 10-13 11/1
*Using places paid out on by Paddy Power
So that was that. The best I could have come out with would have been 3 winners (11/1,8/11, 5/2) and two placed at 20/1 and 50/1 using one fifth odds for places. Plenty to think about for next week, the main takeaway being to use more of the data not just weight range. I think this will turn into a series now - how do I get better at picking horses, need to think of a catchy title obviously.
While we wait for the promise of racegoers returning to courses depending on their geography, ITV Racing on a Saturday afternoon continues to play an even more important role in maintaining interest in the sport of kings. I've been less than impressed with the lack of campaign to get spectators back racing. There may have been lots going on behind the scenes but there was next to nothing visible to me. Horse Racing Ireland is an all island body covering two different countries operating two different sets of restrictions. In Northern Ireland, football fans have been enjoying Irish League football and internationals over the last couple of months while northern racing venues like Down Royal and Downpatrick remained behind closed doors despite there being far, far more room to social distance in the wide open spaces trackside. Presumably, the powers that be decided racing fans would be congregating around bookies, bars and fellow spectators. At least at football they could be designated a seat and would stay there for the duration of the game. It seems patronising that the biggest racecourses in Ireland and Britain couldn't organise themselves for these times like any other business. Perhaps the bad publicity of the Cheltenham Festival going ahead at the beginning of Covid made the British Horseracing Authority stay quiet for fear of being hauled over the coals in the media again and Ireland followed their lead. There was also additional money awarded to HRI from the Irish Government that may have covered the losses. Whatever the reasons, the silence has been deafening. Maybe we will get an explanation when this is all over. Flat racing briefly welcomed back the paying public before the numbers began rising again and the slow run into lockdown 2.0 started. Hopefully, we are all more prepared and understand what is required to maintain some sort of normality while remaining sensible with our actions.
Saturdays ITV Racing is from Newbury and Newcastle according to the schedule though I see now on Twitter that they are also showing races from Doncaster. I've gone with the 6 races that are on the ITV Racing schedule page here and tried to pick some winners. I never really do the ITV 7 because for some reason unbeknown to me they often include races they aren't broadcasting. I'm not going to back horses in a race I can't watch. My process for picking horses is very simple but requires some work. I look at the last 3 winners of the race - age, weight, Jockey, Trainer, previous run (including position, course, distance and date) and apply that to this years race. Obviously ground can be a consideration but I'm assuming they wouldn't be in the race if ground was an issue. My first filter is weight and I use the weights of the last 3 winners as the range to hopefully choose this years winner from then I look for patterns using the other headings. What I'm finding is that I can narrow the field but I'm still having to choose a winner from between 8 and 2 horses depending on the size of the field. A friend of mine said I should just back all the horses that fall into my selection and I've attempted to do this by having several very small value each way Lucky 15 or 31's and up to superheinz depending on how many races are on ITV and how many I've time to look at. The results have been that I'm picking winners and place horses but they're across 3 or 4 different bets so I'm only breaking even or making small gains or losses. Once I get to backing the horses I'm also probably influenced by the horses I've looked at who are at the top of the market so I'll have one lucky 15 bet with for example the first horse I've looked at in each race that might pay 15/1 while my fourth bet might be 4000/1 because it's 4 long odds horses but one of those might place. Today is to see if I write out my selection process after applying the previous winners data filters, can I get winners and place horses on one bet and win some decent money. The other option is to pick the first horse in the betting in the first race, second horse in betting in the second, third horse in betting in third race and 4th horse in betting in fourth and see what that brings. Anyway, here we go for today.
Race 1 is the 1.50 at Newbury is a 2m4f handicap hurdle and in fairness this process probably works best for handicaps given the first filter is weight. The last 3 winners The Cashel Man, Champ and La Bague Au Roi carried between 11/6 and 10/6 and were aged 6 or 7. Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 3 and two of the last 3 won in the previous month over 2m6f. Colonial Dreams is 8 and is ridden by Jeremiah McGrath and trained by Nicky Henderson who won this together last year but hasn't had a run since February. Ben Jones and Emma Lavelle have experience winning here. They saddle 6 year old Hang In There who was 6th at Ascot in a 2m in October. Lord Lamington is only 4 so falls outside the age bracket. He was 8th in a 2m5f at Cheltenham earlier this month. Dr Richard Newland trains On The Wild Side, a 7 year old, who won his last race, a 2 mile at Hexham in October. Jacamar has Richard Johnson on board and came 4th last time out over 2m4f at Carlisle in November. The final option is Howling Milan, 6 year old and 7th in a 2m at Uttoxeter in October. On The Wild Side ticks the most boxes.
Race 2 from Newbury 2.25 a 2m hurdle won in the past by horses carrying 11/10 to 11/6 and aged 5 or 6. There are only 2 horses in the race this year carrying these weights. 4 year old Botox Has won last time out at Cheltenham over the distance in October. Sebastopol is 6 and was last seen winning in Feb. Previous winners have finished 2nd or 3rd in November or not run since March tough to choose between these but will go with Botox Has with a run under his belt.
The third race from Newbury is the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase over 3m1f. Previous winners aged 7,8 and 10 carrying between 11/3 to 10/8 and have had a run in October of between 2m5f and 3m, two of them winning. Copperhead is 6 and pulled up at Wetherby in a 3m in October, the evergreen Regal Encore won a 3m at Ascot in October but is 12 now. Aye Right is the right age and was 3rd in a 3m in October. 7 year old Mister Malarkey was 6th at Ascot and like Copperhead is trained by Colin Tizzard who has won this before. Black Op goes for Tom George following a 4th place in a 2m4f in Nov. Two for Gold was second in a 2m3f recently. The Conditional won the 3m1f at Cheltenham but that was in March. La Bague Au Roi has won here before and was 5th in the 3m at Wetherby. Danny Whizzbag was disappointing at Wincanton earlier this month but could come on for the run while The Hollow Hinge unseated rider last time. I'm tempted to go for Regal Encore but his age puts me off so it's Mister Malarkey or Aye Right for and I'll go for the former.
The final race from Newbury is a 2m handicap chase with winners aged 5,8 and 9 carrying between 11/9 and 11/3. This gives me a selection of Hatcher, Western Miller, Maracudja and Zanza. Two of the last three ran in November over 2m or 2m4f. Hatcher was 7th in 2m in October, Western Miller second in 2m at Cheltenham. Maracudja 7th in 2m1f and Zanza second in 2m in November and he's my pick.
At Newcastle in the Fighting Fifth, all the talk is about Epatante. Sceau Royal is older than last 3 winners. Ribble Valley won last time and Silver Streak is good for a place.
The 3.15 2m7f has featured winners carrying 11/7 to 10/13 so only Brave Eagle and last years winner Takingrisks qualify.
Snugsborough Hall in the 12.30 at Fairyhouse was tipped up to me by a friend who knows the owner and completes the superheinz.
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